This briefing provides a detailed impact assessment of the consequences of the first three years of implementation of the Illegal Migration Bill. The analysis is based on publicly available sources and uses conservative estimates based on existing data.

If the bill becomes law, the Refugee Council estimates that:

• In the first three years of the legislation coming into effect, between 225,347 and 257,101 people will have their asylum claims deemed inadmissible. This includes between 39,500 and 45,066 children.
• At the end of the third year, between 161,147 and 192,670 people will have had their asylum claims deemed inadmissible but not have been removed. They will be unable to have their asylum claims processed, unable to work and will be reliant on Home Office support and accommodation indefinitely.
• In total, between £8.7bn and £9.6bn will have been spent on detaining and accommodating people impacted by the bill in the first three years of its operation.
• The bill will do nothing to expand safe routes available to people who are trying to reach the UK.