• The asylum backlog would have spiralled to a record high of 177,063 people by January 2025 under the previous government’s policy framework. [1] [2]
• The new Government’s decision to scrap the Rwanda Plan and start processing people’s asylum claims again means that the asylum backlog is forecasted to be 118,063 at the start of 2025—59,000 lower than if the Government hadn’t acted and lower than at the time of the election on 4 July 2024. [3] [4]
• These actions could save as much as £240.7m in asylum support costs by January 2025 [5] (six months from the policy change in July).
• As a result of the backlog clearance that took place under the previous government, between July 2023 and March 2024 there was a 253 per cent increase in the number of refugee households facing homelessness after being evicted from Home Office accommodation following a positive asylum decision. [6]
• The Government now needs a coherent strategy to continue to rebuild the asylum system underpinned by a clear vision for refugee protection in the UK.

New analysis from the Refugee Council shows that the new Government’s decision to scrap the Rwanda Plan and kick-start asylum decision making is projected to lead to 59,000 fewer people stuck waiting for an initial decision by the end of January 2025 than there would have been had no action been taken. These actions could generate estimated savings of up to £240 million in asylum support.

The charity also highlights that, based on initial decision grant rates in the year before the election, just over half of the people in the backlog at the time of the election may be expected to be granted refugee status now that their claims can be processed. What is more, seven in ten of the people who have crossed the Channel in the twelve months to June 2024 would be expected to be recognised as refugees if their asylum claims were processed—but 96 per cent of those claims were still outstanding at the time of the election.

Using official Home Office data, the Refugee Council projects a record 177,063 people waiting for an initial asylum decision by January 2025 [1] [2], had the new Government not acted.

The report highlights that the Illegal Migration Act 2023 had effectively brought asylum decision making to a standstill at the time of the general election. The asylum system was at its lowest productivity levels since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, with only 2,990 asylum decisions being made in June 2024 and 1,150 asylum interviews held in the same month, compared with 14,148 decisions and 3,523 interviews in April [7]. A third of the people waiting for a decision at the time of the election were from five countries with very high rates of positive initial asylum decisions: Afghanistan, Iran, Eritrea, Sudan and Syria.

The charity welcomes the swift actions taken by the new Government, but says there needs to be a coherent strategy in place underpinned by a clear vision for refugee protection in the UK. An important part of this is setting out a clear and transparent plan for how the backlog of asylum claims will be processed, including which claims will be prioritised and ensuring people are able to access sufficient legal advice.

Concerns are also raised over the appeals process. Increases to the number of asylum decisions being made has led to a consequential increase in the numbers of asylum appeals being lodged [8]. The Refugee Council warns that without a plan in place to increase the capacity of the tribunal to hear appeals, the number of outstanding appeals will increase substantially.

The Refugee Council outlines 22 key recommendations for government. These include a complete repeal of the Illegal Migration Act 2023 and the Safety of Rwanda Act 2024 as part of putting in place a clear vision for a fair, humane refugee protection system that complies with international law, and a review to simplify the legislative framework and remove anything that is not in keeping with that vision.

The charity also calls for a clear and transparent plan for how the backlog of asylum claims will be processed and prioritised, an extension of what is known as the “move-on” period to reduce the risk of refugees falling into homelessness, as well as a significant bolstering of safe routes for travel to stop refugees being left with no choice but to embark on a dangerous journey to find safety.

Enver Solomon, CEO of the Refugee Council, said:

The Government inherited an asylum system that was utterly broken. Decisive early action has been taken to stop the system from falling over but, instead of mending and making do, there needs to be comprehensive reform to create a fair, orderly and humane asylum system.

A functioning system is one that quickly and accurately makes decisions about who has a valid reason to be protected in the UK and who doesn’t and supports refugees to rebuild their lives.

People seeking asylum need quick decisions so they can feel secure about their future in Britain, while the public needs to feel confident that the Government is making fair decisions about who can stay in the UK and who cannot. Asylum applications are moving again, but we are concerned that there is no clear plan yet to improve the rate of decision-making to keep pace with applications and avoid another backlog emerging.

Any strategy to reduce the number of people crossing the Channel to seek asylum in the UK must include putting in place safe and legal routes for those refugees who are eligible. This includes allowing those with close family in the UK, which we know is one of the key drivers of refugees crossing the Channel, to be reunited with their loved ones.

We stand ready to work constructively with the Government so that the public can have confidence in a system that protects refugees and helps them rebuild their lives.

—ENDS—

Notes to editors:

Read the full report now: Rescue, Recovery and Reform: towards an effective asylum system October 2024

For further information and media interviews contact Refugee Council’s Press Office at 020 7346 1214.  

[1] In June 2023 the asylum backlog reached 175,457 people.

[2] This estimate is based on the average number of monthly applications in the two years to June 2024 and the Home Office being unable to make any decisions.

[3] This estimate is based on projected initial decisions by the end of January 2025.

[4] In the days before the general election there were 85,839 cases relating to 118,882 people waiting for an initial decision.

[5] This is based on savings worked out as the reduction in asylum support costs minus the costs of granting status (methodology set out in Appendix 1 of the report), with upper and lower ranges for the proportion of people in receipt of support. These are the savings from processing claims up to the end of January, so the benefit will continue to grow as time progresses.

[6] For more information, see the Statutory Homelessness Live Tables here.

[7] This represents a 79% decrease in the numbers of asylum decisions and a 67% decrease in the numbers of asylum interviews held between April 2024 and June 2024.

[8] In the twelve months leading up the general election there were 36,394 asylum appeals lodged at the first-tier tribunal—four times as many appeals as during the previous 12 months.